As the pharmaceutical and biotech online editor here at
the Fool, I read all kinds of opinions about companies in the
sector, especially those thought to be
values. One I read last night caused me to raise my
eyebrows so high that my toupee threatened to slip off. (I
actually still have my hair, but it's a great image.)
In his Monday column for Bloomberg, John Dorfman of
Thunderstorm Capital presented four companies that he felt
might be picked by Benjamin Graham, the father of value
investing. Dorfman was looking for companies trading below
book value, trading below 12 times earnings, and having debt
less than 50% of equity.
The companies he chose were civil and building
construction firm
Tutor Perini , drilling company
Rowan (NYSE: RDC), outdoor gear retailer
Cabela's (NYSE: CAB), and -- this is where my
interest comes in -- medical device provider
Boston Scientific (NYSE: BSX).
Three reasons he picked Boston Scientific were:
Regarding the other three companies, I have no opinion
whatsoever, not being an expert on them. But I do disagree
with his choice of Boston Scientific.
On the surface, yes ...
Yes, it is trading below book value. However, if you
back out its $12.4 billion in goodwill and $6.8 billion of
intangible assets, both mostly due to its 2006 acquisition of
Guidant, Boston Scientific has a negative tangible book value
of about $5.7 billion.
The goodwill asset is not solid, and it can be reasonably
argued that Boston Scientific overpaid when it beat out
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) to purchase
Guidant. At the end of last year, Boston Scientific had to
recognize that when it wrote down nearly $2.6 billion worth
of goodwill from the Guidant acquisition. Companies are loath
to make such a move.
What P/E?
On a trailing basis, the company doesn't have a P/E
ratio, thanks to that goodwill writedown. However, if you
take management's guidance for 2009
GAAPearnings per share of $0.43 to $0.48, the company
closed last night with a P/E of roughly 17 to 19 for 2009
earnings. That's quite a bit above the estimate of 12 that
Dorfman laid out and the P/E of 10 he claimed for Boston
Scientific.
But you can get there. Instead of GAAP, which includes
such pesky items as amortization and restructuring charges,
take the best of management's guidance for
non-GAAP EPS for 2009. That gets you to 10.6 using
last night's closing price. And there you are.
Except ... backing out charges like amortization (which
the company has done to its intangible assets every year this
decade) and restructuring charges (which it's done for two of
the three years since acquiring Guidant) kind of misses the
point of the costs of running a business that net income is
supposed to represent.
Revenue is supposed to turn into cash
Finally, that revenue increase Dorfman calls out. It's
supposed to be turned into cash, isn't it? In Boston
Scientific's case, it hasn't. Cash flow from operations
(CFFO), which backs out noncash charges such as amortization,
shows how much cash is actually flowing into a business from
revenue. Here's what's happened at Boston Scientific over the
years mentioned:
Year
Revenue (Millions)
CFFO
(Millions)
% CFFO to 2004 Level
% CFFO to Revenue
2004
$5,624
$1,804
N/A
32.1%
2005
$6,283
$903
50.0%
14.4%
2006
$7,821
$1,845
102.3%
23.6%
2007
$8,357
$934
51.8%
11.2%
2008
$8,050
$1,216
67.4%
15.1%
TTM
$8,111
$1,218
67.5% Continued... |