What a difference 12 months can make. Last year at this
time, we were staring at a market abyss. Right now, on the
other hand, we've seen the market rise
half of the way back to its all-time high, with small caps
taking the lead.
Small caps generally lead the broader equity market into
or out of downturns. For example, the Russell 2000 peaked in
July of 2007, while the large-cap indices, such as the Dow
and S&P 500, didn’t
peak until October 2007. Third-quarter GDP is expected to be
released on Thursday, and the consensus is that the economy
grew 3% in that period, snapping four consecutive quarters of
negative growth.
As we begin to emerge from this wretched recession,
it's time for investors to
gain small-cap exposurein their portfolios if they
haven't done so already. The Russell 2000,
the small-cap stock benchmark, has already run up a whopping
66% since its March 9 low; however, the index still remains
31% below its peak in July 2007.
"Historical research has tested that, on average,
small-cap stocks led large caps at 12, nine, six and even
three months prior to and after a recession's bottom, as well
as at the exact moment of the trough itself," according to
Stephen Wood, senior portfolio strategist at Russell
Investments. "Investors who loaded up on small caps relative
to large caps three and six months prior to the bottom, and
those who timed the bottom perfectly, had on average the best
returns."
Building up small-cap exposure
For the long-term investor, trying to time that
inflection point in the market clearly isn't necessary. In
fact, small caps have a tendency to outpace their larger
brethren as the economic operating environment improves. Case
in point: Since the March 9 low, the Russell is up 66%, while
the Dow is up 51%. So let's start searching!
To uncover winning small-cap companies, I ran a stock
screen using the Motley Fool's
CAPS screening tool. I looked for companies with:
ratingsof five stars, the highest ratings from our CAPS
community.
Here's what I uncovered (and you can see the screen
here-- remember that results will be updated as the
market changes):
Company
Market Cap (in millions)
Price-to-Earnings (TTM)
LT Debt-to-Equity Ratio
Current Ratio
EPS Growth Rate (last 3 years)
Rev. Growth Rate (last 3 years)
Return on Equity (TTM)
Almost Family (Nasdaq: AFAM)
$270.7
13
0.28
2
27.29
40.63
20
China Education Alliance (NYSE:
CEU)
$122.3
10.8
0
16.2
53.39
58.01
34.2
Diana Shipping (NYSE: DSX)
$1,044.9
4.7
0.31
3.4
29.47
49.96
28.6
LSB Industries (NYSE: LXU)
$275.4
10.6 Continued... |