One of economists' greatest fears is that the U.S.'s
financial recovery will be doomed to the same fate as Japan's
economy: a decade or more of stagnant growth.
Despite the fact that there are major differences between
the U.S. economy and the Japanese economy, the U.S. may be
vulnerable to the same unconventional cause that sealed
Japan's fate. This is according to
Clayton
Christensen, Harvard Business School professor, author of
The Innovator's Dilemma, and the foremost expert on
innovation in the U.S., who recently visited The Motley Fool
headquarters.
That unconventional cause is innovation stagnation.
According to Christensen, every industry that constituted the
engine of Japan's economic miracle was "disruptive."
That is to say, companies started competing in Japan's
market from the bottom and rapidly worked their way to the
top of the market through innovation, transforming industries
whose products historically were complicated and expensive
into something affordable and simpler for a much larger
population. By that point, companies had finally reached the
promised land of high margins at the upper end of the
market.
At the same time Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore came in on
the low end of the very industries that had propelled Japan's
growth stealing those markets. Now enter China and India from
the bottom, which are racing up market as fast as
possible.
"It wasn't just
Toyota (NYSE: TM) that [stole the market
from]
General Motors ," said Christensen. "
Honda (NYSE: HMC) did it to the motorcycle
industry,
Canon (NYSE: CAJ) did it to
Xerox (NYSE: XRX),
Sony (NYSE: SNE) did it to
RCA ,
Mitsui did it to ship building and by 1990
those companies had gone from the low end to the high end of
the market. There just wasn't anywhere to go."
This is evidence, according to Christensen, that there
really are microeconomic roots to countries' macroeconomic
prosperity and stagnation. "I really worry about America
because there's nowhere to go," he said.
Now turn to the U.S.
Christensen says the U.S. economy got disrupted out of
manufacturing by the Japanese and that now we're getting
disrupted out of engineering and creativity by India. "We've
led the world in technology not because the Americans are
technologists," he said. "We've just been a magnet for the
best in the world, and now if our immigration policy tries to
systematically turn those immigrants [away], and they can't
come here -- or they don't come here -- I really worry what
will become of us."
Indeed Christensen is not the only expert that's worried
about this scenario. Charles Geisst -- the man who called the
2008 financial meltdown
four years priorin a book entitled,
Undue Influence: How the Wall Street Elite Puts the
Financial System at Risk, and a professor of finance at
Manhattan College -- told me in an interview that he thinks a
Japan scenario
could be on the tablefor the U.S. economy. Continued... |