How do we fix the financial system? How do we ensure that
we don't set ourselves up for another crisis? Simon Johnson,
professor at MIT's Sloan School of Management,
senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International
Economics, and co-founder of
The Baseline
Scenarioblog, offered some ideas during a recent visit to
Motley Fool HQ.
Johnson, who is also a former chief economist of the IMF
and an authority on financial crises, says it's the
structureof the financial sector that's to blame. He
says the cause is rooted in the system of incentives and the
ownership structure for banks like
Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC),
Citigroup (NYSE: C), and
UBS (NYSE: UBS). Regulation is also a cause,
according to Johnson. "It's a structural issue that has come
about because of the way the U.S. economy and the financial
sector has changed over the past 30 years," he said.
Johnson also shrewdly instructs us to think about the
power structure of finance, not just the efficiency of
finance and markets. He points to Thomas Jefferson as someone
who had foresight on the power structure of finance. In his
day, Jefferson warned about the moneyed aristocracy. Johnson
believes Jefferson had a very clear view of power and was
afraid of anything that would rise up and challenge elected
democratic authority.
"[What happened] is not a random piece of bad luck,"
Johnson said. "If it's structural, that means you have to fix
the structure. Otherwise you really run the risk of repeating
this."
Fixing the regulatory structure
Johnson says we should start with things that are
directly under the control of the regulator, namely capital
requirements. "If you raise capital requirements enough and
if you make them steeply progressive enough so that big firms
have to have a bigger equity cushion against losses
… that will be a big disincentive to
size."
On the legislative front, Johnson says the
administration's proposed consumer protection agency is the
way to go. "It's not perfect, but notice that is the only
piece of legislation that big finance and even medium-,
little-sized financial firms protest." Johnson argues that
since the financial sector has not fought nearly anything
else the administration has put forth, it tells us that the
other proposed regulations won't make a difference.
Repealing Glass-Steagall
Johnson says repealing the Glass-Steagall Act was an
element of a much broader push toward deregulation.
Glass-Steagall, which was enacted during the Great
Depression, mandated that erstwhile commercial banks like
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)
couldn't engage in investment banking, and
erstwhile investment banks like
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS)
couldn't engage in commercial banking to
minimize risk to the financial system.
"It was part of the capturing of the minds and the
ideology of regulators and of Capitol Hill," Johnson said.
"So as a symbol of what happened it's very powerful."
However, the defining moment for Johnson was the decision
not to regulate derivatives, which was made under the Clinton
administration. "If that had gone differently, perhaps now
we'd have a safer system," Johnson said. At the time it was
thought -- or argued by bankers -- that regulating
derivatives would cause the greatest financial crash since
the Great Depression. "They were right, but with the wrong
side," said Johnson. "That was it. That was deregulation, or
failure to regulate." Â Continued... |