Last month, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke declared that the
recession is most likely over. Of course, that
proclamation by itself doesn't mean it's time to break out
the bubbly. Despite signs of economic and financial
stabilization,
we're not out of the woodsyet.
Investors need flexibility and liquidity in their
portfolios. That means investing in stocks
andbonds. So where do you begin to invest in the
bond world? What areas offer the best return?
To get some answers, I spoke with some bond experts at
Payden & Rygel Investment Management. Here's what they
had to say.
What rates will do
Before you invest in bonds, you should have an idea of
the direction in which interest rates are likely to move.
According to Thomas Higgins, Payden's chief economist, the
Fed is starting to phase out some of the unconventional
programs it implemented at the height of the financial
crisis. That in turn should lead to a tightening of
policy.
Higgins believes interest rates will climb higher
gradually. "The yield increases will be more steady, measured
yield increases," Higgins said on a recent call. "Debt-to-GDP
is expected to grow significantly and so rates could rise 120
to 150 basis points starting around the middle of next year.
Though there is the risk that the Fed may act preemptively,
especially if the strength of the U.S. economy surprises on
the upside."
Where to invest in the bond universe now
With that background in mind, let's take a look at
Payden's specific recommendations. The investment management
company takes a three-pronged approach to bond investing
right now, focusing on corporate bonds, municipal bonds, and
emerging-markets debt to take advantage of the opportunities
in fixed-income securities.
Corporate debt
Jim Sarni, managing principal and senior portfolio
manager at Payden, likes both investment-grade bonds and
high-yield junk bonds that have ratings below investment
grade.
On the investment-grade side, Sarni favors companies in
defensive industries. In particular, he notes that
Allied Waste , which merged with
Republic Services (NYSE: RSG) last year,
offers six-to-seven-year bonds with yields above 6%. For
those with a shorter time horizon, Sarni likes
Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW), whose three-year
bonds offer a yield between 3.5% and 4%.
For those seeking higher yields from riskier bonds, Sarni
favors
Georgia Pacific , whose seven-year bonds
yield 7.5%. He also mentioned long-term bonds of
Edison Mission Energy , owned by
Edison International (NYSE: EIX), which offer
an 11% yield.
In addition, Sarni says Payden owns some bank names such
as
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC),
Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), and
JPMorgan Chase . "These offer slightly higher
yields than other comparable maturity and quality issues due
to the obvious concerns about the banking industry today,"
Sarni said.
Municipal bonds
Sarni expects to see higher income taxes, given the
amount of debt the U.S. is undertaking. Municipal bonds can
help investors fight the impact of higher taxes, because
interest income from munis is generally exempt from tax both
at the federal level and within the state in which the bonds
are issued.
Although munis have already had a nice run, Sarni says
they're still attractive at current valuations: Munis trade
with yields around 4.5% to 5%. If the top tax bracket
eventually approaches 50%, Sarni says, that would equate to
taxable equivalent yields of 9% to 10%, which would provide
nice capital appreciation for investors. Continued... |