Last fall it wasn't uncommon to see a 400-point drop in
the market in one day. Nor was it uncommon to see highly
regarded financial powerhouses -- like
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS),
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), and
Citigroup (NYSE: C) -- shorted to
smithereens. As unprecedented events spurred institutional
and retail investors alike to panic and purge equities for
cash -- $8.85 trillion accumulated on the sidelines by the
end of 2008.
Since March 9 we've seen the market climb some 50%, as
more cash has been put to work. As the market has surged it
has brought those financial stocks that were battered such as
Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) or
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) some of the way, or
all of the way, back.
Given this move, how risk averse are investors right now?
Is there still an unprecedented amount of cash on the
sidelines? Will the violent volatility we saw last fall
resurface? These are the very questions I posed to five
experts:
ING Investment Management (NYSE: ING).
Bob Doll, vice chairman and global chief investment
officer of equities atÂ
BlackRock (NYSE: BLK).
Bernie Schaeffer, chairman and CEO of Schaeffer
Investment Research.
What follows is an edited transcript of what the experts
had to say:
As a measure of risk aversion, there was an
enormous amount of cash on the sidelines this winter. How
does the money flow compare with the beginning of the year?
What are you seeing?
David Kelly: What we're seeing is that people
are less risk averse. They are putting money back into both
stocks and bonds at this stage. We've seen positive flows
into stock mutual funds as well as bond mutual funds.
[Though], we're still seeing more money flow into bond
mutual funds [than stock mutual funds]. So, while it's a
little bit better, I think people are still very skeptical.
They're putting some money into equities as well as fixed
income, but in general I think consumer confidence and
investor confidence is still very low.
John Linehan : ... it's clear that a lot of
people had a fair amount of cash reserves built up. When the
economy started to stabilize and the market went higher, it
put people in a position where they had a lot of money to put
to work, which has driven the market higher. They're far less
risk averse since March. I think you see it best in corporate
spreads -- Treasuries or in fixed income. Spreads blew out to
the widest levels ever and you've seen them come back
convincingly in the last several months.
Uri Landesman: I think it's more positive. In
the last few months we've seen investors more scared about
missing the recovery than about getting in and having the
platform blown out from under them like last year.
While there was definitely an unprecedented amount of
money on the sidelines, both from retail and institutional
investors, I think it's started to flow back into the market.
We've gone from a maximum, high-risk averse stance to a much
greater appetite for risk. Witness the performance of
emerging markets this year, which tend to be the highest-risk
equity investments.
That said, no one is 'digging their heels in at the
plate.' No one is throwing money in and saying I'm willing to
own risk for the next two years. People are dipping in, but
they're pretty finicky. I think if they hear there can be a
double dip in the recession, or a new area of financial
services that has trouble, I think they would become risk
averse right away. They've got some risk bets on, but at the
first sign of trouble people are going to be quick to take
profits.
Bob Doll : Yes. It certainly has improved. Is
there as much cash absolutely or relative to the size of the
market as there was? No. But is there still a fair amount?
Yes.
Bernie Schaeffer : According to data from
www.ici.org, institutional
money market assets have decreased from $2.5 trillion in
mid-January to $2.4 trillion currently...In January 2008,
there was only $1.9 trillion in institutional money market
funds.
Based on this data, it is our belief that there is still a
"risk-aversion" mentality and thus a significant amount of
cash among the institutional crowd that can still be deployed
into the market.
Are you expecting volatility to pick up in the last
months of the year?
Continued... |