The second-quarter earnings season was watched
particularly closely as investors used the reports to
understand how corporations from
Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) to
Deere (NYSE: DE) were wading through the
recession. Investors had feared a problematic earnings
season, but -- thanks mostly to cost-cutting initiatives --
three-quarters of companies beat earnings expectations,
including
Whole Foods , (Nasdaq: WFMI)
Visa (NYSE: V), and
Alcoa (NYSE: AA).
But will earnings from the third quarter (which ends this
month) be a roadblock? If companies don't
show earnings growth attributable to revenue increases, will
earnings beats attributable to cost-cutting again be enough
to push stocks higher? More than that, when will earnings
recover to surpass their prior peaks?
These are the questions I posed to the following five
experts:
BlackRock
David Kelly, chief market strategist at
JP Morgan (NYSE: JPM)
Uri Landesman, head of global growth at
ING Investment Management
John Linehan, co-director of
T. Rowe Price 's U.S.
equity division and portfolio manager of the T. Rowe Price
Value Fund
Bernie Schaeffer, chairman & CEO of Schaeffer
Investment Research
Here's an edited transcript of the
experts' answers:
Regarding third-quarter earnings, if
we're not seeing any top-line growth,
how much cost cutting can companies implement? Could
corporate earnings be a roadblock for the market going
forward?
David Kelly: I don't think
so. If the economy grows I think earnings will grow.
It's very typical in the depths of a
recession for companies to make all of their money through
cost cutting because if the economy isn't
growing then revenues won't be
growing.
At the trough of the recession I would expect companies to
be only able to show earnings through cost cutting [rather]
than through revenue growth. But if the economy does resume
good economic growth of 3% or 4% over the next two quarters,
I think there will be some top-line revenue growth.
I think analysts on Wall Street are also very nervous
about being too optimistic here. If you look at the recent
earnings season, even if companies beat expectations,
analysts have been very slow to raise their expectations for
the rest of the year. Thus I think we could see some
surprises on the upside.
Bob Doll: They could. A lot of criticism
about the earnings surprises in the second quarter was about
cost cutting. My terse response is go back and look at your
history books -- that happens every recession. The first
thing that happens is that businesses lay off workers and cut
costs. You finally get a quarter or two [of recovery] because
of the cost cutting and then it's
eventually the top-line growth. But this
isn't atypical in any way shape or
form.
… Qualitatively, I think [third-quarter
earnings] will be more of the same. That is, it will probably
surprise a bit to the upside. A lot will be about cost
cutting. I think what we will need for the market to be OK is
a little more evidence of top-line growth than we saw in the
second quarter and I suspect we'll get
some of that.
Uri Landesman: I think there is probably
still some cost cutting left depending on the industry,
sector, or company. Clearly you're going
to need to start seeing some of it from the top line. Though
companies have done a good job keeping expectations low
enough for the third quarter that we probably have another
quarter where there are more positive earnings surprises than
negative. But as you say, the string is starting to get
pulled pretty tightly. So there is certainly going to need to
be some top-line growth looking out past that into 2010.
Bernie Schaeffer: Earnings are still in a
position to surprise to the upside, as skeptics abound about
cost-cutting being the major driver these days. Therefore, a
return to top-line growth driven by a moderate recovery and
easier comparisons would convince the naysayers that have
earnings concerns.
When do you expect earnings to recover and when do
you expect earnings as a whole to surpass their prior
peak?
Kelly: We're already
seeing the earnings recovery. They've
already turned the corner. The trough for U.S. corporate
earnings was in the fourth quarter of 2008 where operating
earnings were negative $0.09. They were then positive $10 in
the first quarter, and about positive $14 in the second
quarter. I expect they will continue to move up steadily --
though it's difficult to predict exactly
-- roughly $15 in the third quarter, $16 in the fourth
quarter and continuing to move up.
I think it will take us at least until 2011 to get back to
the earnings numbers we saw in 2007. The economy needs to
recover somewhat before we can get back to those levels we
had two years ago, and we will need to see unemployment come
down to achieve that. Continued... |