Not long ago the prospect of a second Great Depressionwas on the table. The economy was hurting. The market had lost some 40% of its value. Things were bleak.

As we enter fall -- the one-year anniversaryof the financial storm -- we've had months of market gains and some pleasant economic news to go along with it. Just last week, we learned that the U.S. manufacturing economy expanded for the first time in 18 months. U.S. auto sales jumped to their highest monthly level in more than a year, pushing sales from Ford (NYSE: F), Toyota (NYSE: TM), and Honda (NYSE: HMC) higher. Although sales were bolstered by the government's "Cash for Clunkers" program, automakers expect conditions to continue improving. So with all this positive news, the question remains, is the recession over?

I put that question to a panel of experts:

After four straight quarters of economic contraction, everyone on the panel believes the worst is behind us -- and some even believe the recession is, in fact, over. What follows is an edited version of what they had to say:

Looking at the underlying fundamentals, do you think the recession is over?
David Kelly: Yes I do. Though, let me be clear [about] what economists mean by a recession. A recession is measured as the period of time between the best month and the worst month. Although it still feels lousy, and although the economy still has problems -- I think unemployment is still fundamentally rising -- I think we are past the worst month. From that perspective, I think the recession is over, and the recovery has begun.

The National Bureau of Economic Research will eventually make the determination. Technically the way they date recessions is they look at five indicators: retail and wholesale sales, industrial production, employment, income, and a broad measure of overall output in the overall economy.

I think that in the month of July, we probably saw income turn positive. We know we've seen industrial production turn positive, and probably overall output in the economy turned positive. So I think we may have seen three out of the five numbers turn positive. So we're not in full-fledged recovery yet, but I think they will probably say that the recession ended in either June or July of this year.

Bob Doll : I think it's ending as we speak. My guess is that the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the final arbiter on these things, will look back after the turn of the year and will point to some month -- probably here in the third quarter -- and say that was the end of the recession. Whether it's August or September, who knows, but it's happening. Continued...