Hard as it is to believe, it has been a year since Lehman
Brothers' implosion and the stock market mayhem that
followed. Last fall,
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) bought Merrill
Lynch overnight and
AIG (NYSE: AIG) was sent into cardiac arrest.
After the dust settled in early 2009, though, expectations --
and along with it, the market -- have steadily risen. The
S&P 500 has roared back 52% since March, with stocks such
as
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS),
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL), and
Freeport-McMoRan (NYSE: FCX) rising 80% or
more. However, the index still remains 35% below its October
2007 peak.
For insights on where we go from here, I interviewed four
experts to see how they see things playing out for the rest
of 2009 (and beyond).
Our panel includes Bob Doll, vice chairman and global
chief investment officer of equities atÂ
BlackRock (NYSE: BLK); David Kelly, chief
market strategist at
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM); Uri Landesman,
head of international equities at
ING Investment Management; and Bernie
Schaeffer, chairman and CEO of Schaeffer Investment
Research.
The good news is that every one of them is bullish. They
expect the rally to continue, but not without a pullback
along the way. What follows is an edited version of what they
had to say:
As we enter what are traditionally the two worst
months of the year, are you bullish or bearish on the stock
market for the rest of the year?
Bob Doll: I'm pretty neutral to be honest,
but if you push me into a corner one way or the other, I'll
lean to the bullish side. The market has run from a scenario
six months ago where people thought the world might end. I
think a lot of the rally has been about that view being too
negative.
Have we started to bake some recovery in? We have, but the
debate of course is how quick will it be and therein will lie
the pattern for the market. I think there is enough
skepticism out there, enough cash on the sidelines, and
enough improvement of the news that the path of least
resistance remains to the upside.
Having said that, I think we'll have a bump sometime
between here and the end of the year. Markets never move in a
straight line and we're due for a consolidating setback.
David Kelly: The bottom line is that I'm
bullish for long-term investors. I don't think that we can
profitably try to time which month to get in or out of the
market.
For the long term, I think that although the market is off
its lows, those lows were extraordinarily low. If you believe
the economy will gradually recover over the next few years,
then I think there will be very good gains for stocks -- very
likely double-digit annual returns on average over the next
five years. So I would be overweight stocks.
Uri Landesman: If you held a gun to my head,
I'm bullish, with the following caveats: My end-of-the-year
target on the S&P is 1135. Now, it's possible that we'll
see 900 before going to 1135. So short-term what's going to
determine this market as much as
fundamentalsis
technicals. I think we will see somewhat of a correction
over the next two months, with important support at 970, 930,
and especially 900 on the way down. The next level up is
1225.
Bernie Schaeffer: We like the market's
prospects from here until year-end. The "too far, too fast"
mentality is one of several "fear factors" that has kept cash
on the sidelines -- cash that might be deployed in the future
to drive further gains and contain pullbacks.
The market will bump up against key technical areas along
the way, so it won't exactly be a smooth ride higher.
Pullbacks should be shallow, despite growing anxiety among
many professional traders who continue to fear a sharp
pullback as we move into historically weaker months.
What's the catalyst to drive us higher, or lower
for that matter?
Doll: For higher, continued evidence that the
economy is improving -- lower unemployment claims, slow but
steady improvement in the other jobs numbers, continued
improvement in leading indicators (which have been screaming
higher), more signs that inventories are being rebuilt, and
an uptick in business and consumer confidence.
If these all continue to improve as they have now for
several months, I think the market will work its way higher.
What could set us back, aside from that not coming true and
the opposite, is some sort of notable credit bump. I think
we'll have some credit bumps, but I think they'll be small
enough generally speaking that the market will absorb it.
Kelly: What would drive us higher is just the
continuation of better economic news. The problem is that it
has been 27 years since we have seen a big recession, and
most people don't know what an economy does after a big
recession. The truth is after a recession like this, as was
the case with the prior two recessions we've had like this,
the economy grew by 7% on average in the first year.
No one expected that and I'm not expecting that either,
but I think we could easily do 4% GDP growth over the next
year. That's a lot more than people expect. So I think this
gradual confirmation of close to 4% economic growth is what
could power the market higher because it's beyond peoples'
expectations. Continued... |