"Never, ever think about something else when you should
be thinking about the power of incentives."
-- Charlie Munger
Maybe you've heard this popular myth: A major cause of the
financial crisis was boneheaded Wall Street compensation
packages unaligned with shareholder interests.
Before I can tell you why that story is so misleading,
please ask yourself this question.
Am I an investor, or am I a speculator?
During his recent visit to Fool HQ, business legend
John Bogle argued that this is the very first question you
must ask yourself.
The distinction is simple but powerful: Investors buy
shares of
businessesand prosper over time as the company grows
profits. Speculators, on the other hand, trade
wiggleson a stock chart, in hopes of selling shares
at a higher price to other speculators within a few
quarters.
Back to the myth
Sadly, shortsighted compensation plans and business
strategies
arealigned with the time horizons of the vast
majority of shareholders. After all, at year-end 2007 (the
most recent statistical set), some 80% of all shares were
held by financial institutions. And the evidence shows that
financial institutions are, by and large, speculators.
Given the explosion of mutual funds, 401(k)s, endowments,
and the like, it makes sense that institutional ownership has
steadily risen over the years. As institutional ownership has
grown, however, the average holding period of stocks has
shrunk:
Year
NYSE Turnover
Holding Period
2009 (year-to-date)
141%
9 months
2000
88%
14 months
1990
46%
26 months
1980
36%
33 months
1970
19%
63 months
1960
12%
100 months
Source: NYSE Group Factbook.
Turnover = number of shares traded as a percentage of total
shares outstanding.
It gets even worse when we look at the overall stock
market, according to Bogle. Inclusive of exchange-traded
funds, the overall market turned over at 284% in 2007. That
means the average holding period for stocks and ETFs was
four months!
OK, but how does this speculative frenzy affect
you?
Wall Street's very dirty secret
Simply put, when institutional shareholders have a time
horizon of four months, they should
wantmanagement to pull out the stops
right nowto hit quarterly earnings targets. If
they're not going to own the stock in five years, why would
they concern themselves with the long-term effects of today's
business decisions?
Consider the average holding period of these stocks in
2007 -- the year before the volatility-inducing financial
meltdown:
Company
Holding Period
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC)
9.4 months
AIG
9.3 months
Citigroup (NYSE: C) Continued... |