For many investors, picking the precise time to buy a
stock is one of the most anguishing aspects of investing. Too
often, we're plagued with fear that we're too early, or too
late.
Certainly, it is a volatile time for stocks, but investors
focused on building long-term wealth know that this
recessionary period offers one of the best chances to
buy stocks on the cheap. Seasoned value investor Bill
Lippman has admitted to seeing great opportunities in the
market today, and even President Obama has encouraged people
to buy stocks for long-term investment.
Ok, I'll buy. But which ones?
If you're like many other investors looking to buy a
cheap stock today, you're probably tempted by large caps like
General Electric (NYSE: GE),
Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG), or
AT&T (NYSE: T), which are trading below
highs seen in recent years. But if history is any lesson,
you're selling yourself short -- precisely because this is
the same conservative approach that many other investors are
taking.
Looking back, many of
the market's best performerssince the last recession like
XTO Energy (NYSE: XTO),
Southwestern Energy , and
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (Nasdaq:
GMCR), were small caps during the last recession, and have
since grown into multibillion-dollar companies. You may know
that small caps outperform others over the long term, but
small-cap companies have also handily
beaten large capsin the year following the past 10
recessions.                                          Â
For instance, Money Magazine points out that after the
1973-74 downturn, small caps beat large stocks for 10 years
between 1974 and 1983. And after the Great Depression, small
stocks led the market for 11 of the next 13
years. Â
Yeah, but this time could be different
So how is the "small caps outperform everything" theory
holding up in this recession? If we look from what many are
now acknowledging as the start of the recession (early
December 2007) to the market bottom in March, we see that
stocks -- small and large alike -- took a severe
pounding.
Index
Return From Dec. 3, 2007
– March 9, 2009
Â
Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index
(46.2%)
Russell 1000 U.S. Large Cap Index
(44.9%)
Russell 3000 Broad-market Index
(45%)
Source: Russell Index
Calculator.
Despite all of the predictions flying around, no one knows
if stocks have found a bottom, or when the recession will
end. But since the March low, small caps have once again
bolted out of the gate.
Index
Return From March 9, 2009
– Nov. 2, 2009
Russell 2000 U.S. Small Cap Index
61.8%
Russell 1000 U.S. Large Cap Index
55.7%
Russell 3000 Broad-market Index
56.1%
Source: Russell Index
Calculator.
This is only a small window to compare performance, of
course, but the data does lend evidence that, once again,
small-cap stocks tend to be
more significantly underpriced. For this reason, an
investor is more likely to uncover a good value on a
small-cap stock with strong fundamentals before the
mainstream market catches on.
And don't get too caught up in timing the end of the
recession. According to State Street Global Advisors, in the
three years following the midpoint of each of the last three
recessions, small-cap stocks delivered a solid advantage,
particularly relative to large caps, returning an annual
average of 8% more than large-cap stocks.
Many places to start
Here are some small caps I've been looking at for their
strong growth and return on equity, as well as low to
non-existent debt to equity ratio:
Company
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