For many investors, picking the precise time to buy a
stock is one of the most anguishing aspects of investing. Too
often, we're plagued with fear that we're too early, or too
late.
Certainly, it is a volatile time for stocks, but investors
focused on building long-term wealth know that this
recessionary period offers one of the best chances to
buy stocks on the cheap. Seasoned value investor Bill
Lippman has admitted to seeing great opportunities in the
market today, and even President Obama has encouraged people
to buy stocks for long-term investment.
OK, I'll buy. But which ones?
If you're like many other investors looking to
buy a cheap stock today, you're probably tempted by large
caps like
Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO),
McDonald's (NYSE: MCD), or
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), which are
trading below highs seen in recent years. But if history is
any lesson, you're selling yourself short precisely because
this is the same, conservative approach many other investors
are taking.
Looking back, many of
the market's best performerssince the last recession,
like
Quality Systems ,
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG), and
priceline.com (Nasdaq: PCLN), were small caps
during the last recession and have since grown into
multibillion-dollar companies. You may know that small caps
outperform others over the long term, but small-cap companies
have also
beaten large capsin the year following the past 10
recessions.
For instance,
Money Magazinepoints out that after the 1973-74
downturn, small caps beat large stocks for 10 years between
1974 and 1983. And after the Great Depression, small stocks
led the market for 11 of the next 13
years. Â
Yeah, but this time could be different
So how is the "small caps outperform
everything" theory holding up in this recession? If we look
from what many are now acknowledging as the start of the
recession (early December 2007) to the market bottom in
March, we see that stocks -- small and large alike -- have
seen a severe pounding.
Index
Return From 12/3/07 –
3/9/09 Â
Russell 2000 US Small Cap Index
(46.2%)
Russell 1000 US Large Cap Index
(44.9%)
Russell 3000 Broad-Market Index
(45.0%)
Source: Russell Index
Calculator.
Despite all the predictions flying around, no one knows if
stocks have found a bottom or when the recession will end.
But since the March low, small caps have once again
bolted out of the gate.
Index
Return From 3/9/09 –
9/25/09
Russell 2000 US Small Cap Index
72.1%
Russell 1000 US Large Cap Index
56.1%
Russell 3000 Broad-market Index
57.3%
Source: Russell Index
Calculator.
This is only a small window to compare performance, of
course, but the data does lend evidence that, once again,
small-cap stocks tend to be
more significantly underpriced. For this reason, an
investor is more likely to uncover a good value on a
small-cap stock with strong fundamentals before the
mainstream market catches on.
And don't get too caught up in timing the end of the
recession. According to State Street Global Advisors, in the
three years following the midpoint of each of the last three
recessions, small-cap stocks delivered a solid advantage,
particularly relative to large caps, returning an annual
average of 8% more than large-cap stocks.
Many places to start
Here are some small caps I've been looking at for their
strong growth and return on equity, as well as low to
nonexistent debt-to-equity ratio:
Company
Return on Equity (TTM)
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