How can a company with no known business model raise $100
million from respected investors such as
T. Rowe Price (Nasdaq: TROW)? That's the
question I find myself asking, after a
Wall Street Journalblog reported that Twitter is
raising $100 million from as many as seven investors.
I see two possibilities. Either:
there is no business model.
Many people work for, work with, or invest in Twitter (and
that number is expanding). To date, no one has definitively
said what the Twitter business model will be.
Internal documents released by a hacker to TechCrunch in
July showed that Twitter expected 25 million users and $4.5
million in revenue this year. The revenue expectations follow
a hockey-stick growth curve going forward, with $140 million
in revenue projected for 2010. So what could the secret
business model be?
The possibilities are endless?
The documents from a strategy meeting present such
business options as verified commercial accounts, which
Twitter identified as the "fastest way to make money without
putting a whole organization behind it." Other possibilities
included "Search/content ads, sponsored tweets, Adsense
widgets." However, each of these was just a possible idea
thrown out during a brainstorming meeting.
The closest thing we have to an insider account comes from
Todd Chaffee, a Twitter board observer and general partner at
Institutional Venture Partners,
an investor in Twitter. In an interview with
The New York Times, he speculated that e-commerce
would play a role. Mr. Chaffee said, "As people use Twitter
to get trusted recommendations from friends and followers on
what to buy, e-commerce navigation and payments will
certainly play a role in Twitter monetization."
While Twitter won't become the next
eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY) or
Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) overnight, this
looks like the most likely road to widespread monetization at
the moment.
Another possibility is the "freemium" model, in which
basic free services are offered to all users, who then have
the option to upgrade to paid premium accounts for more data
and features. The problem with this model, though, is that
most users are notoriously unwilling to pay for premium
accounts. And Twitter documents show that the company expects
as much, saying that the "majority of users [are] not
monetizable."
Sellout?
The business model also could be irrelevant
for the time being if Twitter were acquired by a
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) or
Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) and allowed to focus
solely on increasing its dominance of the micro-blogging
space. Continued... |