Successful investingrequires a balancing act between two
important things: the desire to
make as much money as you canfrom your investment versus
the wish
to preserve your capitalin case things go wrong. With one
increasingly popular investment, however, the limited reward
that's available to investors today doesn't justify the
potentially huge risks if the economy fails to maintain its
upward track.
Reaping riches from junk
Late last year, the financial crisis sliced the bond
market in two more sharply than a Ginsu can slice a tomato.
On the one hand,
Treasury bondssoared as panicky investors fled to the
assets they considered the safest. On the other hand, with
many companies completely unable to tap the credit markets at
all, demand for some types of
corporate bondsall but evaporated, and investors who
owned them lost huge amounts of money.
But now, the tables have turned, and everyone is piling
into all sorts of bonds, including junk. Treasury bonds have
actually
lostvalue this year, even including interest
payments. Their rates are still so low that
yield-starved investorsare flocking to any alternative
that offers higher income, regardless of the risk involved.
The demand has helped corporate bonds produce huge results so
far this year.
Understanding risk
And unfortunately, the market for corporate bonds does
involve more risk than investors are giving credit for right
now. For instance, high-yield "junk" bonds usually trade at a
substantially higher interest rate than Treasury bonds with
the same maturity date. The additional interest serves to
compensate investors for the additional
risk of default.
According to the
Wall Street Journal, the spread on junk bonds has
narrowed from almost 20 percentage points last fall to just
7.6 percentage points today. Although that's still a
significant spread by historical standards -- the average
figure is just 5.6 percentage points -- it shows just how
much investors have bid up the prices of these bonds
lately.
Big gains are done
The problem, though, is that bonds can only rise so
much. Back in October, the
WSJreported that bonds on
Ford Motor (NYSE: F) had jumped from $0.125
on the dollar at their February/March lows to $0.72, and that
MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM) bonds had tripled in
value since the rally began. Those returns compare pretty
favorably with how the stocks of those companies have fared
this year.
But although shares can keep rising indefinitely, there's
an upper limit on how much a bond can appreciate. Take a
look, for instance, at these recent prices on high-yield
corporates:
Issuer
Bond Coupon and Maturity Date
Current Price
MGM Mirage
6.75% of Sept. 2012
85.25
Freeport-McMoRan Copper &
Gold (NYSE: FCX)
8.25% of April 2015
107.03
Community Health Systems (NYSE:
CYH)
8.875% of July 2015
102.00
Sprint (NYSE: S) Capital
7.625% of Jan. 2011 Continued... |