If you're not a multimillionaire, you might not pay much
attention to the world of
hedge funds. But even if you don't
consider investing in hedge funds, the moves that they and
other big institutional investors make can sometimes have a
big impact on the stocks you own.
Fallout from failure
Perhaps the clearest example of how a hedge fund can
affect the overall market comes when it has to liquidate its
operations, either because of losses or some other factor.
For instance, the Galleon Group recently said that it would
wind down its hedge funds, in the wake of last week's
announcement that billionaire founder Raj Rajaratnam was
among a group charged with
violating insider-trading laws.
Along with executives from
IBM (NYSE: IBM),
Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), and McKinsey, employees
at a second hedge fund, New Castle Partners, were also
allegedly involved in the scheme. New Castle has said that it
intends to stay in business, although some believe that
investors may lose confidence in the fund because of the
allegations.
In response to Galleon's announcement that its funds will
be winding down, some have looked to the stocks that Galleon
funds own as potential short candidates. Although Galleon
hasn't yet disclosed the stocks it owned as of Sept. 30, its
second-quarter filings point to fairly substantial holdings
in
eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY),
Google (Nasdaq: GOOG), and
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL). The reasoning behind
the short call is that if Galleon has to sell its huge blocks
of stock, it could depress their prices, potentially creating
profits for
short-sellers, who would then presumably cover their
positions after Galleon goes out of business.
Not so fast
Now, it's true that hedge-fund selling can have an
impact on the markets. During last year's financial crisis,
forced sales by hedge fundsand other institutional
investors such as mutual funds likely contributed to the huge
drop in stock prices. Mutual fund investors alone took out
more than $200 billion from equity funds in 2008, forcing
managers to sell stocks they once believed in.
By comparison, as big as Galleon is, it's a drop in the
bucket compared to last year's market storm. The
Wall Street Journalclaims that Galleon has about
$3.7 billion under management. As big as that sounds, it
means that the positions that Galleon has in large, highly
liquid stocks shouldn't be huge enough to cause major
disruptions. Apple trades almost $3.5 billion in shares each
day on average, while eBay trades more than $450 million, and
Google around $1.5 billion.
Moreover, we don't know whether Galleon still even owns
those shares. The hedge funds may have moved on to different
investments by now, leaving those trying to open short
positions chasing the wrong stocks.
Being smart about selling
Moreover, even if its hedge funds still own those
stocks, Galleon won't be short-sighted enough to try to dump
all of its shares at once. Unlike hedge funds that are
suffering from an immediate need for liquidity, Galleon can
afford to take its time and wrap things up in an orderly
fashion. Continued... |