After nearly a year of the Federal Reserve keeping rates
as low as they can go, some are now starting to believe that
it's time to
reverse the rate reductions. Yet doing so would have huge
implications not just within the financial industry, but
throughout the entire business world.
Time to pop the next bubble?
Over the weekend,
Barron'sreleased a cover story that implored Fed
Chairman Ben Bernanke to raise interest rates from their
current target between 0% and 0.25% to what it termed a "more
normal" 2%. The commentary cites low rates from 2001 to 2004
as contributing to the
housing bubblethat put the economy in its current
predicament, and predicts similar problems with financial
speculation if rates continue at current levels.
The Fed seems unlikely to increase interest rates in the
near future, having signaled its preference to be too slow in
monetary tightening rather than too fast. Given
how fragilethe nascent economic recovery seems right now,
such caution may seem justified.
Regardless, when it finally does happen, raising rates
will help some investors and companies while hurting others.
Here's a quick look at who stands to win and lose from future
rate increases.
Savers: nowhere but up
Low rates are great if you're borrowing money. Right
now, though, plenty of people have money to lend -- and
they're not getting much for it. The shortest-term Treasury
bills pay less than 0.1% right now, leaving many money market
funds struggling to pay anything at all after expenses. Banks
are managing to
pay a bit moreon online savings accounts and CDs, but you
won't find the 5% many banks paid a few years back until the
Fed starts pushing rates up again.
Once rates rise, though, all that could change. Savers
could start seeing their income restored, boosting their
confidence in making ends meet. No one would be happier to
see rates rise than savers with money on the sidelines who
plan to keep it there.
Banks: the end of a great ride
On the other hand, financial institutions
thrive in a low-rate environment, especially when a steep
yield
curvecreates big differences between the short-term rates
they pay depositors and the longer-term rates upon which many
loans are based.
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM) had
huge earningsbased largely on the fixed-income
environment, and banks like
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) and
Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC) have seen growth in
net interest income play an important role in maintaining at
least some degree of financial stability.
Higher interest rates, though, could put those profits at
risk. The big question is how long-term interest rates would
respond to a Fed rate hike. If long rates also rose, then
interest spreads could remain constant. But if they didn't
rise as much, narrowing spreads would put pressure on bank
profits, potentially creating another liquidity crisis within
the financial industry.
Stocks: a mixed picture
More broadly, rising rates would have differing impacts
on various stocks. As
Barron'spoints out, higher rates could help support
the
U.S. dollar, which has been fairly weak lately.
Although that might sound like welcome news, a stronger
dollar could actually hurt some
U.S. businesses that rely on exports. Consider, for
instance, just how much of their revenue these companies get
from overseas:
Company
International Revenue
% of Total Revenue
Philip Morris International (NYSE:
PM)
$63.6 billion
100%
PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP)
$20.7 billion
48%
IBM (NYSE: IBM) Continued... |