We all know
what we're
supposedto doduring a bear market. But until
you've actually
beenin that situation, you don't really know what it
takes to pull the trigger and put real money at risk --
especially at times when every instinct you have is telling
you that you're throwing that money away.
Now, battle-tested investors have a full-fledged big bad
bear under their belts. We all went through last year's
financial crisis, two big dips in the stock market in
November and March, and the
incredible rallyfrom those lows. We've seen threats from
both
deflationary and inflationary pressures. And although
plenty of challenges still face the economy, such as an
escalating
loss of confidence in the dollar, few people are still
worried about a complete systemic breakdown of the entire
financial system.
As an investor, you'll face moments of panic and euphoria
countless times in the future. Ideally, you'll use your
experiences over the past year as a learning tool for how to
handle your investments the next time around. Here are three
things you can take from the financial crisis and the ensuing
recovery.
1. You won't know the bottom when it comes.
One of the first things you learn in investing is to
buy low and sell high. However, that maxim neglects to
mention that during bear markets, there's always a perfectly
plausible
reasonwhy stocks are low -- and why you shouldn't
buy them. Last November, executives from
Ford (NYSE: F),
GM , and Chrysler were asking the government
for bailout money, while lawmakers and economists were still
trying to figure out exactly what the recently approved TARP
program was supposed to do.
Meanwhile, in March, Warren Buffett had announced that the
economy had "fallen off a cliff;" at the same time, the World
Bank was predicting a global contraction.
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) had to resort to
issuing debt backed by the FDIC to raise capital.
At either of those points, it seemed downright likely that
stocks would keep falling. But each of those times turned out
to be
great buying opportunities. There was simply no way you
could have known that at the time.
The key, therefore, is not to try to guess the exact
bottom. Instead, if you commit your capital gradually over
time, you'll get
someof your money in near the bottom. And while you
won't get the absolute best returns possible, you'll still do
pretty well.
2. Any stocks can become good values.
Over the past six months, companies like
Citigroup (NYSE: C),
MGM Mirage (NYSE: MGM), and
AIG (NYSE: AIG) have taken a lot of heat for
benefiting from the "
junk rally" in stocks. Yet while it's interesting that
speculative stockshave done so well, it shouldn't be
surprising.
In March, many risky stocks were priced for absolute
failure. With the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the
impending bankruptcies of GM and Chrysler, it seemed that no
company was completely safe from utter collapse. Investors
bid down shares accordingly.
Yet as it turned out, those moves were a complete
overreaction. Once it became clear that those companies
wouldn't immediately shut down despite the financial straits
they were in, their stocks took off. Most of them still trade
at levels far below where they were two or three years ago.
But despite the risk involved, they were priced so low at the
time that investors comfortable with that risk stood to make
big gains -- and did. Continued... |