Just as the
bear market in 2008didn't spare many stocks from its
wrath, the stock market's huge rally since March has pulled
most stocks back up from the abyss. But one group of stocks
has played its traditional role in leading the stock market
toward an economic recovery. Now that those stocks have
posted impressive gains, investors have to wonder: Do they
have any room left to run, or should you steer clear until a
long-overdue correctionfinally makes them more affordable
again?
Big gains in small packages
In this month's new issue of the Fool's
Rule Your Retirement
newsletter, Foolish retirement investing expert Robert
Brokamp revisits the world of
small-cap stocks. Back in April, Robert looked at the
historical data from past recessions, noting that in nearly
every instance, small-cap stocks dramatically outperformed
their large-cap counterparts in the recovery year following
recessions. With an advantage of more than 20 percentage
points, small-caps didn't just beat large-caps; they
pummeledthem.
Fast-forward six months, and you can see that Robert's
prediction has borne itself out in the figures from the
market rally. Large-cap stocks such as
Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) and
Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) have performed
extremely well; one S&P index fund is up 57% since the
market hit bottom. But small-caps have done
a lotbetter, beating the S&P by 33 percentage
points since the March lows.
Flying too high?
Yet 90% returns aren't just unusual -- they're
downright scary, especially if you've missed out on the
rally by staying on the sidelines, and you're trying to
figure out how to invest at these much-higher levels. With
stocks such as
Tenet Healthcare (NYSE: THC) and
Office Depot (NYSE: ODP) trading at five and
10 times what they fetched back in March, the margin of
safety on many small-cap stocks has pretty much
disappeared.
Moreover, the small-cap investing world is starting to get
crowded again, as
performance-chasing mutual fund investorstrade out of
their large-cap holdings to snap up shares of hot small-cap
funds. Contrarians might see that as a good reason to head
for the door.
Where the good wild things are
But even after a big run-up in price, you don't have to
give up on small-cap stocks entirely. While the
easy moneyhas already been made, small-cap investors can
still find
good stocks at reasonable prices. You may just need to
look a little harder, or wait a little longer for the right
opportunities.
For investors seeking a good all-purpose small-cap mutual
fund, Robert has discovered what he considers a great pick
for conservative investors. With stock picks such as
Rofin-Sinar Technologies (Nasdaq: RSTI) and
Bio-Rad Laboratories, the fund is up
significantly this year, despite having a large cash
position, and it has averaged nearly 11% annually over the
past 10 years.
On the other hand, if you're willing to take on more risk,
another good place to look for great returns is the micro-cap
space. Focusing on companies in the $100 million to $250
million market-cap range, micro-caps aren't for meek
investors, but they can pack a punch when the time is right.
One fund that Robert mentions combines tiny stocks such as
Providence Service with more established
small-caps like
Buffalo Wild Wings (Nasdaq: BWLD) and
PetMed Express (Nasdaq: PETS), which have
posted a reasonable return for the year.
Do small-caps belong in your portfolio?
In general, small-cap stocks are best for those willing
to sacrifice safety for
higher returns. So if lofty share prices have you already
feeling the heat in your stock portfolio, you might want to
wait for a pullback before you add small-caps to your overall
investing strategy. But for long-term investors, small-caps
can help you diversify your portfolio. And if the recovery
truly is just getting started, the gains you've seen could
just be the tip of the iceberg.
This article was originally published as
Have These Stocks Come Too Far Too Fast?on
Fool.com
Copyright © 2009 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights
reserved.
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