For investors in the U.S., the prospect of a falling
dollar may sound like the next step toward
financial catastrophe. But if you stick with the right
investments, you can actually turn a falling dollar into
more profits for your portfolio.
Understanding the dollar
From your own personal perspective, you have every
reason to fear a falling dollar. Because most people in the
U.S. earn their salaries in dollars, your
purchasing poweraround the world is tied to the dollar's
fortunes. And given how many things we buy that are imported
from other countries, a falling dollar means that you'll pay
more for many of those things.
For big companies that do business around the world,
though, the impact of a falling dollar isn't nearly as
one-sided. If a company buys imported goods and sells them
solely in the U.S., then its dollar exposure is similar to
that of American workers. But if a corporation has business
interests and earns revenues abroad, it can actually
benefitfrom a falling dollar -- and investors who
pay attention can transform their currency fears into big
gains.
The winners
To understand how a falling dollar could push stocks
upward, you only need to look at the most recent earnings
reports from some well-known U.S.-based global companies.
Earnings at
McDonald's (NYSE: MCD),
Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), and
Amazon.com (Nasdaq: AMZN) all took
big hitsduring the second quarter because the dollar was
risingin value. As counterintuitive as it may seem,
it was
strengthin the dollar rather than weakness that hurt
profits. Conversely, a weaker dollar can actually boost a
company's profitability.
Although that might not make sense at first, you'll get it
after you think about it more closely. Those companies and
others like them do much of their business abroad. Adjusting
their prices every day to reflect the latest currency
exchange rates is neither practical nor desirable, so many
companies simply ride out minor changes in currency values to
preserve their competitive position. In particular, even
when the dollar strengthens, no one wants to raise prices in
foreign-currency terms and risk losing market share to local
competitors. Conversely, when the dollar weakens, the
company's foreign-currency revenues are worth more in dollar
terms, boosting profits.
As the economy has become more global, foreign revenues
have become increasingly important for many companies. For
instance, take a look at the percentage of revenue that comes
from foreign operations at these companies:
Company
Foreign revenue as percentage of total revenue
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