With gold prices burning straight through the roof of,
what I believe to be, a fiat currency
house of cards, investors hold understandably high
expectations for the performance of gold mining equities.
Much to their chagrin, several well-respected miners have
not delivered bottom line results that reflect any measure of
the dramatic 47% surge in the gold price from year-ago
levels. The fact that
Kinross Gold (NYSE: KGC) can mine more than
one-half million gold equivalent ounces in the third quarter
at these lofty prices, and still yield a bottom-line loss, is
enough to boil the blood of patient investors still weary
from last year's painful correction. Kinross reported a loss
of $0.03 per share for the period and even after making
adjustments earned only $1.7 million for its bottom line.
While
Agnico-Eagle Mines ' (NYSE: AEM)
growing painsassociated with the Kittila mine ramp-up
process appear entirely surmountable, and
Newmont Mining 's (NYSE: NEM) Boddington mine
delay is
no cause for concern, Kinross is facing a potentially
severe setback with its ramp-up of the Paracatu mine
expansion in Brazil. In order to reach full production,
analysts believe Kinross will need to add another grinding
circuit, which would of course require unforeseen
expenditures and several quarters to complete. The setbacks
resulted in a high $764-per-ounce production cost at
Paracatu, which caused Kinross to
buck the trend of falling costsand record a $58 increase
to $464 per GEO (gold equivalent ounce).
Given
the gap I identifiedin Kinross' development pipeline
several months ago, this detour from previously forecast 2009
production of 2.4 million ounces to a revised 2.2 million
ounces comes at a particularly difficult time. From the
Lobo-Marte projectpurchased from
Teck Resources (NYSE: TCK) and
Anglo American earlier this year, to the
Cerro Casale joint venture with
Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX), all identifiable
drivers of future production growth for Kinross remain in
pre-construction phases of development. Kinross and analysts
alike expect zero production growth out of Kinross for 2010,
rendering rivals like
Goldcorp (NYSE: GG) considerably more
attractive for growth-seekers at this juncture.
As mining investors have
learned all too wellin recent quarters, operational snags
are not the only
dangerto a miner's bottom line. Kinross recorded a $35
million foreign exchange loss in the third quarter, compared
to a $30.6 million gain a year earlier. One not-so-special
item that may have a silver lining, however, is the $58.6
million future income tax expense resulting from the
debt-lowering impact of the U.S. dollar's decline. Long-term
debt has shrunk by $171.4 million through the first three
quarters, and Kinross holds some $530 million in cash with
which to
fill-in that near-term pipelinethrough acquisitions.
Kinross Gold may be down, but I don't believe it's out. I
have reduced my own exposure to Kinross in recent months to
reflect a more cautionary stance, but continue to view the
company as an attractive vehicle for
riding the gold bull. Granting the company just three
stars out of five,
Motley Fool CAPSmembers appear
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This article was originally published as
No Shareholder Gold From Kinross Yeton
Fool.com
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