In 2007, Americans saved a total of $57.4 billion. That
same year, we spent $92.3 billion on legalized gambling.
That data, which comes from Christiansen Capital Advisors
via Jason Zweig of
The Wall Street Journal, says a lot.
Are you surprised by that imbalance?
We sure were. And while it's worrisome that we spend
more on gambling than we save, it's even more troubling for
another reason: We have an addiction to trying to get rich
quick.
Gambling, after all, is about putting up a small amount of
money in the hopes of winning a large amount of money. (We
grant you that there's also an entertainment value to it.)
It's a high-risk, high-reward game. Sounds a little bit like
Wall Street ... and how
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) carried 25:1
leverage in 2007.
The intersection of Wall and Main
As the savings stats suggest, Main Street
Americans took on too much debt without enough cash in the
bank back during those heady housing boom years. We
compounded the problem by taking unhealthy risks. We all know
how that's turned out.
Thankfully, it was not all for naught. Groundbreaking
new data has revealed that Americans have learned from the
recent crisis and are changing their ways. We're getting
smarter about saving, more conservative about the risks we
take, and all in all setting up our country for a brighter
financial future.
OK, that was some serious sarcasm
In reality, there is no groundbreaking new
data. While U.S. savings rates are up (prompting some
economists to worry about deflation), given the evidence, our
guess is that that's a temporary phenomenon. Sketchy "get
rich quick!" infomercials are back in full force, data from
online brokerages have shown that day traders are back in the
market, and there's a new scheme that individual investors
are trying out: currency trading.
According to Aite Group, currency trading among retail
investors is on the rise. Daily trading by these -- for lack
of a better word -- amateurs is expected to rise to $125
billion per day in 2009, up from $100 billion per day last
year and $10 billion per day in 2001. That's a lot.
But here's our advice when it comes to retail investors
and currency trading: Unless you're a professional driver on
a closed course, stay away.
Who listens to us?
Yet currency trading has big-time appeal to small-time
investors. As the
Journalnoted recently: "Investors are typically
attracted to currency trading because of the vast leverage
available -- as much as 500 to 1. That allows an investor to
put up just a few hundred dollars of capital to make a bet of
tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars."
While that is some serious upside, consider this: The
vast majority of currency trades are made by hedge funds,
large corporations, and central banks. In other words, your
counterparty in a currency trade is likely to be someone who
is -- and this is important --
vastly more qualified to make currency trades than you
are. This prompted Gary Tilkin, chief executive of
online firm GFT, to tell the
Journalthat trading currencies "is a business for
speculators, not investors. It's more common to come in with
$2,000 and lose than it is to turn that $2,000 into $25,000."
Your broker, however, will not tell you this.
(Shocker.) The
Journalnotes that
Citigroup (NYSE: C) and
Deutsche Bank , among others, now have
products to entice retail investors.
The right idea, the wrong execution
Glibness aside, individual American investors are right
to be worried about the future of the dollar. That's natural
given that the U.S. national debt, stimulus spending, and
inflation have made the future of the U.S. greenback a
page-one headline these days.
Furthermore, we agree that the outlook for the dollar
isn't so rosy. In fact, I (Tim) recently declared that
the dollar is doomedand pointed investors to
Philip Morris International (NYSE: PM) -- my
No. 1 dollar protection stock.
While one stock is not enough to protect you and your
savings from a decline in the dollar, currency trading is not
the answer, either. What you need is a diversified portfolio
with exposure to a basket of currencies, as well as to
commodities that will hold value even as the dollar declines
in value. That means stocks with 100% foreign exposure such
as the aforementioned Philip Morris or
FEMSA (NYSE: FMX), stocks with vast commodity
reserves like
ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), and careful, measured
use of low-cost currency or commodity ETFs such as
iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV).
That's your huckleberry
A balanced approach like that will yield
protection from a declining dollar without subjecting you to
the massive risks of currency trading. Even better, it will
help you make money slowly over time ...which as history has
shown us time and time (and time) again, is the only way to
do so sustainably.
At
Motley Fool Global Gains
, we specialize in finding and vetting foreign stocks to
help you achieve better global balance in what we'll guess is
your dollar-denominated portfolio. While Philip Morris and
FEMSA are two solid picks, there are many more currencies and
countries you need exposure to. But you're in luck: You can
see all of our research and recommendations by being our free
guest at the service for 30 days.
Click hereto take us up on the offer.
Brian Richards
does not own shares of any companies mentioned.
Tim Hanson
owns shares of Femsa and Philip Morris International.
Both areGlobal Gains
recommendations. The Fool has a
disclosure policy
. It does not stockpile bullion.
This article was originally published as
Why This Speculative Investment Could Ruin Your Savingson
Fool.com
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