Quick test: Which of the following is false?
You didn't hear about the T-Rex in Pawtucket?
Oh OK, we'll fess up: Dinosaurs remain
extinct. Which means that an average American outlives an
average large-sized American corporation by
a factor of two or more.
Two years ago, we wrote a column advocating that investors
look for companies with the following four
characteristics:
Little did we realize just how preposterous it is that
companies would be built for "100 years or more"! In fact,
according to Arie de Geus, author of
The Living Company, "a full one-third of the
companies listed in the 1970 Fortune 500 …
had vanished by 1983 -- acquired, merged, or broken to
pieces."
Professor Jeremy Siegel's meticulously researched book
The Future for Investorsstudied the original
companies of the S&P 500, which was put together in 1957.
Of those 500 companies, Siegel found, just 25% survived
intact to 2003! Over that 46-year span, the other 75% (fully
375 companies) went bankrupt, merged, or were taken
private.
That's our advice: Invest in unicorns and sasquatches
This doesn't invalidate our earlier advice --
that you should look to invest in businesses built to last
for 100 years or more. If you can do that, after all, you'll
align yourself with managers who are thinking long-term
rather than short-term.
It does, however, make an elite group of U.S. businesses
stand out even more -- for one shared trait that is almost as
unbelievable as unicorns and sasquatches. Before we get to
that trait, let's look at that List of Five:
Colgate-Palmolive (NYSE: CL). In today's
uncertain economy, it recently increased its dividend 10%.
Has been paying dividends without interruption since
1895.
Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT). In February,
Abbott
raisedits dividend for the 37th consecutive year;
it's been paying a dividend since 1924.
Emerson Electric (NYSE: EMR). Has raised
its dividend for 52 straight years.
United Technologies (NYSE: UTX). Has paid a
dividend every quarter since 1936.
Kimberly-Clark (NYSE: KMB). Has raised
dividends to shareholders for 37 straight years.
These five businesses have far surpassed the average --
each dates back at least 70 years. Even more impressive: Each
has been paying a dividend
more than half a century.
We've
written a lotabout
global stockslately, but if you're a gun-shy investor
looking for stocks on which to build your retirement
foundation, divided stocks are a vital arrow in your
quiver.
Here's why
The benefit of dividends to shareholders is
clear: You get paid cash each and every year regardless of
whether the underlying stock is up, down, or indifferent.
Furthermore, you can pocket that cash or use it to buy more
shares of stock. Dividends, however, also have a benefit to
the companies that pay them, and we think it's no coincidence
that these long-lasting companies are all dividend-payers.
That's because dividends -- and the need to be
consistent in paying them once a company
startspaying them -- force companies to be
responsible with their cash. In fact, a recent paper by
Douglas Skinner and Eugene Soltes of the University of
Chicago found that dividend-paying companies have better
earnings quality than their non-dividend-paying peers, and
that "dividend-payers are
less likely to report losses" [emphasis added]. And
because companies only go out of business when they start
losing money, it's clear that companies that
don'tlose money won't go out of business.
So there's one little secret when you're seeking companies
that are being built to last 100 years: Look for stocks that
pay dividends.
It's not all joy in Dividend-ville
Of course, there are no sure things, and
that's just as true with longtime dividend-payers as it is
in, say, horse racing. Even worse, the economic downturn has
forced a number of former "dividend dynasties" to cut or even
do away with their dividend --
Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) and
Citigroup (NYSE: C) are two high-profile
examples. Thus, it's as critical now as ever to carefully
scrutinize any stock you choose to invest in and diversify
your portfolio broadly across a collection of superior
companies. Continued... |