Back in March, we profiled
five unbelievably solid stocks-- companies that have been
paying uninterrupted dividends to shareholders for more than
45 years. That consistency is incredible.
Today, we thought we'd take the flip side of that coin and
examine five stocks that are anything
butincredible.
Why they are so dangerous
What first caught our eye about these five dogs is that
they are among the most heavily traded stocks on our
major exchanges:
Company
Average Daily Trading Volume,
Past 3 Months
Recent Share Price
Citigroup
722 million
$4.52
Bank of America
274 million
$17.50
Freddie Mac
67 million
$2.02
Fannie Mae
123 million
$1.69
AIG
42 million
$46.71
Source: Yahoo! Finance.
Millions upon millions of these shares have traded hands
-- on a daily basis -- over the past three months. That might
make sense; after all, every one of these stocks has
headlined the nightly news at least once in recent
months.
Now, we have to acknowledge two things. First, many of
these transactions were from the big-money institutions or
the short-term day-trading crowd. (Still, somewhere in there
is the little guy.) Second, an earlier version of this column
was published in April, and we were as bearish on these five
companies then as now. One problem: Since then, the five
companies we called out have handily outpaced the market --
some even doubling.
Why you should stay away
While it's true that they've rallied of late, we
believe there are better opportunities long-term.
Speculatorsmay be able to ride the momentum ... but
investorswould do well to sit this one out. Why?
Because these stocks have three troubling commonalities:
1. Convoluted relationship with the government.
According to the Center for Responsive
Politics, the "Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate" industry
spent more than $3.4 billion on lobbyists between 1998 and
2008 -- more than any other industry.
What did those five companies get for all of those
political contributions? All have received well-publicized
bailout funds. And while the taxpayer money will be used to
save these companies from a far worse fate (we hope), Uncle
Sam's money comes with strings attached.
Under normal circumstances, businesses are accountable to
three constituencies: their customers, shareholders, and
employees. Businesses will do well when they do right by all
of them. These five companies, however, are now accountable
to a supra-constituency: the federal government. That
frightens us, because it's unclear how customers,
shareholders, and employees will fare when these companies
try to do right by the feds. That's no doubt one of the major
reasons why TARP recipients like
American Express (NYSE: AXP) and
BB&T (NYSE: BBT) wanted to repay TARP
funds so promptly.
2. Gordian knot-like financials.
Take a look at Citigroup's balance sheet. For
all of the information, for all of the numbers, it's among
the most confusing documents we've ever examined. Call us
when you figure out what it owns and what it owes. Heck, call
Citi CEO Vikram Pandit first.
See, it's seemed to us that as the credit crisis persists,
insidershaven't been totally clear about what's on
their books. Though some have a vague sense that
mark-to-market accounting has forced them to write down asset
values too far, only time will tell ... and time may not be
on these firms' sides right now.
The auto companies have some of these same issues -- they
have consumer finance/lending divisions -- but their pension
obligations present an entirely different yet similarly
complicated set of problems.
3. No near-term catalysts.
The financial companies will survive in some
form -- our government has committed to that. But their
future will be unlike their past. Regulation will be
stricter. The massive 30-plus-times leverage that drove
outperformance earlier this decade will be a dark relic of a
bygone era. And now, skeptical investors may never ascribe
the same market multiple to profits.
We just can't see a world in which these companies post
the same kind of profits that we saw for the past 10 to 15
years.
What you shouldn't avoid right now
Contrast the future of Citigroup or AIG with,
say, the future of these efficiently run companies, each of
which is trading at a discount to its five-year average:
Company
Current P/E
5-Year Average P/E
Motley Fool CAPS Rating
(out of 5)
Burlington Northern Santa Fe (NYSE:
BNI)
14.2 Continued... |