It's too bad you can't spell "ugly" with the four
single-letter codes for the bases that make up the sequence
of DNA, because that was exactly what
Illumina 's (Nasdaq: ILMN) earnings release
yesterday was. U-G-L-Y! The only question is whether the ugly
runs all the way through or whether there might be some
beauty under the surface.
Revenue rose by 5% year over year, but for a company that
has grown revenue by more than 50% annually over the past
five years, that measly below-guidance increase just isn't
going to cut it.
It continues to be a tale of two business segments for
Illumina, with sales from the consumables used in its
sequencing machines more than doubling, while its array
business remains down considerably. Consumers are waiting to
begin new projects because they're expecting next-generation
array products that will be able to test 5 million genetic
variations using data from the 1,000 Genomes Project. To spur
things along, Illumina is planning on launching new chips as
the data becomes available from the 1,000 Genomes Project and
will offer supplemental chips as more data becomes
available.
Despite the strong showing, the sequencing products
weren't without their own issues this quarter. A
manufacturing problem, which has been resolved, resulted in a
loss of $6 million to $8 million in revenue in the third
quarter and could negatively affect revenue by as much as $15
million in the fourth quarter, as the company replaces
defective reagents.
Despite the ugly quarter, I do think there's some beauty
under the surface. Illumina wasn't willing to pin down when
stimulus money from grants through the National Institute of
Health will come in --
Waters (NYSE: WAT) said it expects to start
seeing money in the fourth quarter -- but the important thing
is that Illumina will eventually see a benefit from the
long-awaited stimulus.
Most importantly, the company continues to sell more
sequencers -- a record number for the quarter -- and believes
that it has more than 50% of the market, handily beating
competitors Roche and
Life Technologies (Nasdaq: LIFE). Like other
companies with
razor-and-bladebusiness models --
Intuitive Surgical (Nasdaq: ISRG),
Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), and, of course,
Procter & Gamble 's (NYSE: PG) Gillette
-- the installed base of systems will drive the sales of
consumables in future quarters.
Assuming, of course, that the company doesn't run into any
other manufacturing issues.
This article was originally published as
Ugly, but Still Built for Growthon
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