Wednesday, October 21, 2009
Brian Orelli :: Townhall.com Columnist
Double-Digit Growth in a Recession
by Brian Orelli
Vote on It:
Average Vote:
[+] Text [-]
 
 

Revenue up 31%. Earnings per share excluding one-time items up 42%. No, this isn't a flashback to the tech boom. These are results from yesterday.

The strong double-digit growth shouldn't be much of a surprise, though: Gilead Sciences ' (Nasdaq: GILD) HIV patients need their medication even if there's a recession going on. Leading the pack (up 42%) was Atripla, its triple-combination product that contains Bristol-Myers Squibb 's (NYSE: BMY) Sustiva and Gilead's Viread and Emtriva. At the present pace, Atripla should catch its two-in-one little brother, Truvada, fairly soon.

HIV isn't the only virus benefiting Gilead. The influenza virus helped the bottom line through royalties on sales of Tamiflu by Roche. The swine flu helped add an additional $105 million in royalties compared with last year. Here's the best part: Gilead records royalties in the quarter after Roche records the sales, so the extra bump in royalties will keep coming in long after the last swine flu victim has recovered.

Gilead is expanding outside of the virus-killing business with two cardiovascular drugs on the market. Sales of Letairis increased 9% quarter over quarter and Ranexa sales increased 18% over the second quarter. Annualize those out and you get some nice-looking growth rates.

However, both drugs' sales are closer to rounding errors in the $1.8 billion revenue number than blockbusters in their own right. The big move into cardiovascular could come from darusentan, Gilead's blood pressure medication for patients who can't control it with other medications like AstraZeneca 's (NYSE: AZN) Zestril, Merck 's (NYSE: MRK) Cozaar, or Pfizer 's (NYSE: PFE) Norvasc. Data from a second phase 3 trial is expected in the next few months.

Despite the strong performance, investors weren't all that impressed, sending the stock down 3% today. I'll concede that the growth isn't as high as it was in the past -- revenue grew 55% per year from 2002-2007 -- but Gilead isn't as richly valued today as it was back then either. If Gilead can keep the growth of current products steady and work other compounds, like its partnershipwith Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ), through the pipeline, this looks like a nice entry point for investors.

This article was originally published as Double-Digit Growth in a Recessionon Fool.com

Copyright © 2009 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights reserved.

Share:
Vote on It:
Average Vote:
 
About The Author

Brian Orelli is a Motley Fool contributor.

Be the first to read Brian Orelli's column. Sign up today and receive Townhall.com delivered each morning to your inbox.

Sign Up to Post Your CommentsSign Up to Post Your Comments
If you are already registered, click here to login. Otherwise, please take a few seconds to register with Townhall.com. Once you sign up, you’ll be able to post your comments immediately, use the action center, get podcasts, and more!
Note: Fields marked with a red asterisk (*) are required.
Salutation:
First Name:
*
Last Name:
*
Email:
*
Nickname:
*
Note: Nick name will be shown when you post comments.
Address 1:
*
Address 2:
City:
*
State:
*
Zip:
*
Phone:
      
The very best in financial advice from Dave Ramsey, Larry Kudlow, Motely Fool and many more plus Dilbert!