Tysabri isn't
Biogen Idec 's (Nasdaq: BIIB) biggest seller,
but it was the focus of much of the company's conference call
today -- and rightfully so. The multiple sclerosis drug is
growing at a 21% year-over-year clip compared with Avonex,
its top revenue-generator, which increased just 1% year over
year.
Biogen and marketing partner
Elan (NYSE: ELN) added nearly 3,000 new
Tysabri patients during the quarter, but the rate of new
additions per week slowed compared with the second quarter,
which Biogen blamed on vacations in Europe. I guess that's
better than blaming it on the price of tea in China.
Increasing the number of patients on the drug may only get
harder, though. On the conference call, management said that
Elan and Biogen now believe that the risk of developing
progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML), a
potentially deadly brain infection, increases with the number
of infusions a patient receives. Biogen is in discussions
with the Food and Drug Administration to update the label to
reflect this new belief.
The change could result in patients taking breaks from
Tysabri, perhaps going onto other medications and then
returning later. Just realize that drug holidays for patients
result in revenue holidays for Biogen and Elan, so they're
definitely not a reason to celebrate with friends and
families.
That's not a foregone conclusion, however. Keep in mind
that Tysabri reduces flareups better than other multiple
sclerosis drugs such as
Teva Pharmaceutical 's (Nasdaq: TEVA)
Copaxone,
Novartis ' (NYSE: NVS) Extavia, and Rebif
from
Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) and EMD Serono. It's
possible that patients will take their chances with the rare
(but potentially lethal) brain infection in exchange for a
better prognosis.
I continue to think that Biogen and Elan need to focus on
that "potentially" part of the dangerous equation. Increased
sales will come if the companies can lower the likelihood of
infection by identifying patients who are more likely to
contract PML. They're also working on developing a treatment
for PML, but data from the trial isn't expected until the end
of next year.
If you're an investor, stay tuned, because this story
isn't over yet.
This article was originally published as
All Tysabri, All the Timeon
Fool.com
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