That pesky human papillomavirus (HPV) got a double dose of
bad news on Friday, as vaccines against the virus from
Merck (NYSE: MRK) and
GlaxoSmithKline (NYSE: GSK) were approved by
the Food and Drug Administration for different
indications.
Within minutes of each other, Glaxo announced that its
long-delayedvaccine Cervarix was finally approved for use
in the U.S., while Merck announced that its HPV vaccine,
Gardasil, was approved to treat males.
Let the vaccine war begin!
Except ... there are just a couple of problems.
The low-hanging fruit is gone
With a three-year head start and a clean slate of young
females to vaccinate, Merck had a party. But now, as quickly
as it started, that party seems to be coming to an end.
 Metric
2006
2007
2008
First Half 2009
U.S. sales of Gardasil (in millions)
$235
$1,194
$1,041
$363
Year-over-year increase (decrease)
N/A
408%
(13%)
(34%)
Source: Company releases.
Yes, there'll be a new batch of females to vaccinate each
year, but it's clear that the U.S. HPV market isn't all that
big, now that we're approaching just one age group to
vaccinate.
How much of the U.S. market Glaxo will be able to snatch
up remains to be seen. So far, it looks like Merck is winning
the battle outside the U.S., although that could simply
reflect its wider approval worldwide.
Vaccine
2008 Sales (millions)
First Half 2009 Sales (millions)
Continued... |