Investing is sometimes like betting on horse races. You
take all the information you can get, synthesize it as best
you can, and figure out if the potential payoff outweighs the
risks.
Unfortunately for investors in
Sequenom (Nasdaq: SQNM), this company is like
a horse running in two feet of mud, with blinders on, and a
new jockey. Can it make it to the finish line? Maybe. Might
it even win the race? Perhaps. But how do you handicap
something like this? There's not enough information to make
an informed decision.
What we do know is that the company cleaned house on
Monday night. The president and CEO, Harry Stylli, and senior
vice president of research and development, Elizabeth Dragon,
were fired. Its chief financial officer, Paul Hawran, and
Steve Owings, the vice president of commercial development
for prenatal diagnostics, resigned.
The changes stem from the
announcementin April of "employee mishandling of R&D
test data and results" for its Down syndrome test. I've got
no problems with heads rolling, and if the CEO needs to be
fired for a lack of oversight, then so be it. The chairman of
the board, Harry Hixson, who was formerly the chief operating
officer of
Amgen (Nasdaq: AMGN) and also has some
experience with diagnostic testing at
Abbott Labs (NYSE: ABT), will take over as
the interim CEO.
After the haircut yesterday, the company's shares closed
about the same place they did when the scandal first broke
last spring. Essentially, we're back where we started.
Despite
rapid changesin the stock price, we never really left.
Investors are still completely in the dark about what exactly
"employee mishandling" really is. There's still an ongoing
Securities and Exchange Commission investigation, so I guess
it's understandable that the company might want to keep its
mouth shut.
The bigger problem for investors is that they're equally
in the dark about the path forward. No further timeline was
given for getting the Down syndrome test to market, or even
when we could expect initial test results. Beyond what the
company has said earlier, that is, which hasn't been
much.
Uncertainty can lead to outsized returns --
witness
American International Group (NYSE: AIG) and
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) -- but with
Sequenom, I've never been able to get a handle on exactly
what the likelihood of those outsized returns might be. It's
safe to assume that the company is worth north of $20 per
share if -- and it's a big if -- the Down syndrome test turns
out to work, but it's really difficult to determine how
likely that is.
Call me a
wimpif you will, but for that reason alone, I'll continue
to sit this one out.
This article was originally published as
Call Me a Wimp, but I'm Still Nervouson
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