With
biotech, the devil is often in the details. So investors
have been anxiously awaiting the release of data from
Onyx Pharmaceuticals ' (Nasdaq: ONXX) phase 2
trial testing Nexavar against breast cancer -- though you
couldn't tell that from today's stock-price movement.
Onyx and marketing partner Bayer said in July that Nexavar
passed the trial, but there's a big difference between
knowing the drug performed statistically better than placebo
and knowing how much
betterit performed -- especially in a crowded
breast-cancer market.
But it doesn't look as though investors had much to worry
about, after all. Nexavar, when taken with Roche's Xeloda,
extended the time it took for tumors to start growing again
by an additional 2.3 months compared with using Xeloda
alone.
Because it's being combined with another drug, Nexavar
doesn't have to show an overwhelming improvement to get
approved. It's the same
strategythat
Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) is using to test Sutent in
breast cancer. Of course, this approach doesn't always work:
sanofi-aventis (NYSE: SNY) and
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (Nasdaq: REGN)
stoppeda trial last week because it didn't appear that
their oncology drug in combination with
Eli Lilly 's (NYSE: LLY) Gemzar was working
any better than Gemzar alone.
The solid data is great news for Onyx, which doesn't have
much else going for it in the near term except expanding
Nexavar into additional cancers. Breast cancer is a much
larger market than the liver- and kidney-cancer markets that
Nexavar is currently approved for. It's not unreasonable to
expect sales to double from here if Nexavar is approved to
treat breast cancer.
While the data looks good, Nexavar still has to perform in
a phase 3 trial to get approved. Fortunately, investors
should have an even better idea of how it'll perform in a
larger trial after Onyx and Bayer release data from three
other ongoing phase 2 trials.
This article was originally published as
Nexavar, and Onyx, Nail Iton
Fool.com
Copyright © 2009 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights
reserved.
|