Virtualization pioneer
VMware (NYSE: VMW) is usually a happenin'
place to be. Whether it's good news steeped in
growthand
innovationor bad tidings of
doggedly determined competitionfrom
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) and
Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL), this company is never
boring.
Until today, that is.
VMware's third quarter was a relative yawner. Sales rose
4% year-over-year to $490 million and
pro formaearnings stayed flat at $0.24 per share. In
this economic environment, I guess that qualifies as a
smashing success -- we're comparing a pre-meltdown quarter to
a
post-apocalypticperiod, after all.
But for VMware, it's no more than you'd expect. The
annual VMworld conferencecame and went without any
earth-shaking announcements, despite a slate of top-notch
partners like
Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO),
Intel (Nasdaq: INTC), and
IBM (NYSE: IBM).
New products are often a cause for celebration or
calamity, but CEO Paul Maritz is feeling mellow about the
recently released
vSphereproduct suite: "I think we've been at pains to
point out that vSphere is not going to be a big bang," he
told analysts in the earnings call. "This has to go through
the stages of adoption. The effect will be felt over several
quarters." And CFO Mark Peek expects his business to return
to seasonal patterns, including a slight sales drop between
the fourth and first quarters. Yawn, again.
Perhaps the most exciting news in this release was that
service revenue outgrew the rest of the business with a 33%
annual uptick to $250 million. It's a good sign of underlying
strength in VMware's business model as customers lock in to
long-term service contracts even if they don't buy a whole
lot of new software licenses.
So VMware is going through a quiet stage in its growth at
the moment. Management complained that customers are hesitant
to sign big and truly long-term contracts at the moment,
opting instead for smaller and shorter ones. The way Intel
and
Advanced Micro Devices (NYSE: AMD) keep
putting
more processor coresinside every processor is another
muting factor, because customers generally pay support fees
based on the number of processors running VMware's software
-- not the
number of cores. One four-core chip and four single-cores
may do roughly the same work, but the quad-core solution cuts
your support costs by 75%.
The IT industry is changing. VMware helped instigate some
of the changes and needs to adjust to all of them. Sooner or
later, the multi-year contracts will start to roll in as IT
directors become comfortable making long-term plans again --
and their budgets get refreshed. For now, VMware shareholders
can enjoy the 150% bounce off last November's 52-week lows
and wait for
the next catalystto come along.
The show must go on.
This article was originally published as
What a Yawner, VMware!on
Fool.com
Copyright © 2009 The Motley Fool, LLC. All rights
reserved.
|