You can't always get what you want. Even mighty
Cisco Systems (Nasdaq: CSCO) doesn't
automatically get every shareholder on board for a major
acquisition.
Twenty-one major shareholders in Norwegian video
conferencing firm
Tandberg have issued a joint statement,
saying "thanks, but no thanks!" to
Cisco's $3 billion buyout offer. The cadre of protesters
is open to a Cisco deal, but wants more money. The Norwegian
market reacted by sending Tandberg's share price up to just
more than Cisco's offer price.
Analysts on both sides of the Atlantic think that Cisco
probably will raise its offer to row this boat ashore -- no
other company stands to gain as much as Cisco from Tandberg's
products, and Cisco is actually in the habit of
paying steeper buyout premiumsthan what it offered to
Tandberg. For example, Cisco bought online collaboration
expert WebEx for $3 billion a couple of years ago, paying
around 40 times forward earnings. The Tandberg offer is only
about 23 times next year's projected earnings.
Nobody believes in an outright bidding war here.
Video-conferencing giants who could afford to top Cisco's $3
billion bid, such as
Hewlett Packard (NYSE: HPQ),
Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT), or
IBM (NYSE: IBM), haven't shown much interest
in the
TelePresence video-conferencingmarket. The only direct
rival to Tandberg and Cisco's own TelePresence products would
be
small-cap
Rule Breakersrecommendation
Polycom (Nasdaq: PLCM) -- and with a $2.2
billion market cap today, a Tandberg deal would be more like
a merger of equals for Polycom.
This buyout may not be of the same magnitude as the
pending
Oracle (Nasdaq: ORCL) and
Sun Microsystems (Nasdaq: JAVA) combination,
but Cisco believes in TelePresence and seems ready to invest
in this technology. The Tandberg naysayers hold 24% of the
company's shares, and Cisco needs a 90% majority in order to
buy the company outright. Expect a higher bid, maybe in the
order of 10% higher than Cisco's current
offer, before the curtains are drawn on this romance. And I'd
still think Cisco is getting a pretty good deal.
What do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments
below.
This article was originally published as
Go Big or Go Home, Cisco!on
Fool.com
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