The Wall Street Journalthinks that
Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ) could be
interested in buying satellite TV provider
DIRECTV Group (Nasdaq: DTV) soon. In fact,
the
Journalbelieves there might be a
race to acquire DirecTVbetween Verizon and archrival
AT&T (NYSE: T).
No need to jump the gun, guys. Here's why I think this
speculation will come to nothing.
Verizon doesn't need DirecTV
Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg does seem interested in
making video service the core of his fixed-line business,
edging out the current focus on voice communications. And
yes, buying DirecTV or
DISH Network (Nasdaq: DISH) would give an
immediate boost to that business. But
the FiOS video service is doing fine on its own
.
The FiOS TV service now reaches 10.3 million American
households, and the overall FiOS network now reaches 43% of
Verizon's service area for wireline voice products. The
company is clearly committed to making FiOS available to the
majority of its phone-line customers. And a stunning 25% of
potentialFiOS TV customers are already
actualcustomers -- up from 20% a year ago.
By way of comparison, there are 115 million TV market
households in the U.S., according to Nielsen. DirecTV's 18
million American subscribers amount to a 16% adoption rate.
Verizon is still building the FiOS network, and the customer
attach rate is high and rising. There's no need to take
steroids when your workout program already gives you the
muscle you wanted.
... and really can't afford it
Besides Verizon's limited need to grow by acquisition
right now, DirecTV is gosh-darn expensive. Its $27 billion
market cap grows to a $30 billion enterprise value when you
take cash and debt into account. And that's without any
buyout premium.
Oh, and DirecTV has a fresh, profitable co-marketing deal
with AT&T. If Verizon wants to buy DirecTV, there'd be
deal-breaking penalties involved. This is a lot of moola, and
Verizon already carries about $64 billion of net debt. A
stock-swap deal would be possible, but this option would be
less attractive to DirecTV investors, and it might not pass
the required shareholder vote.
OK, smart guy, what do
yousuggest?
If Verizon really does want to buy video subscribers,
DISH Network would be a far more affordable and less
problematic option. But I still don't see the need.
Verizon could put its massive cash flows to far better use
inside its traditional telecom world.
Sprint Nextel (NYSE: S) is
struggling for air, and it runs on technology that's
pretty compatible with Verizon's. Or perhaps Verizon could
snap up
Palm (Nasdaq: PALM) and leverage its WebOS
platform across a diverse line of phones. That move would
both give Palm's platform the marketing muscle it needs (and
give Palm investors a generous premium to boot) and make
Verizon the first telecom network provider that also makes
its own cell phones. That competitive advantage could be
worth a few billion dollars, right?
Feel free to discuss Verizon's options in the comments
below, dear Fool.
This article was originally published as
Why Verizon Won't Buy DirecTVon
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