It's undoubtedly been difficult for many individual
investors to avoid the temptation to snap up shares of
well-known companies now trading in the penny stock range. If
you're one of them, I implore you: Don't give in without
doing your homework. Most of those beaten-down stocks are in
the dumps for good reason.
Despite a few signs of improvement, the macroeconomic
climate has been brutal. Many consumers had too much debt. So
did many companies. As a result, many companies will be blown
right out of the water by the resulting massive
deleveraging.
And now that consumers are dealing with plunging asset
values, untenable debt, and increasing job losses, many
companies' sales are understandably pinched, making it more
difficult to service their own debt or borrow more to fund
their operations. All of which makes for one seriously ugly
domino effect.
Going, going, gone?
Last year, many people made wild bets on financial
stocks like
Fannie Mae ,
Freddie Mac , and Merrill Lynch. I'd guess
that many of these folks unwisely ignored those companies'
balance sheets, which are more important than ever in these
troubled times. Indeed, these investors are
stillmaking wild bets;
AIG (NYSE: AIG) has been a very popular stock
for speculators, despite its high-profile troubles and
reliance on government support.
The folly of shoddy due diligence has become evident in
the increasing numbers of companies disclosing "going
concern" warnings from their auditors. You can find those
warnings in a company's quarterly (10-Q) or annual (10-K or
20-F) filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Usually, there will be a paragraph with language about
factors that "raise substantial doubt as to our ability to
continue as a going concern."
Need a well-publicized recent example of such a company?
Look no further than
CIT Group.
Cause for concern
When companies find it increasingly difficult
to make ends meet, have negative cash flow, or can't find
anybody to lend them money, auditors often eventually
question their abilities to stay upright and in one piece. As
you can imagine, such questions are popping up a lot more
often these days.
Long-struggling
Select Comfort (Nasdaq: SCSS) received such a
warning related to its 2008 financials earlier this year,
although it has since seen better days (and a big buy-in from
a private equity firm).
Escalon Medical ,
Allied Capital (NYSE: ALD), and
Generex Biotechnology (Nasdaq: GNBT) have all
disclosed their own auditor warnings in recent memory.
Even though companies can and do take actions to fix these
problems, such as amending credit agreements -- or, in
Allied's case, being bought out by
Ares Capital (Nasdaq: ARCC -- the warning
remains a dire sign that investors should take very
seriously.
Accountants are usually reluctant to raise such red flags.
According to a recent survey, only about half of companies
that filed for bankruptcy in 2001 had actually received
"going concern" warnings, and some companies that didn't
actually ended up bankrupt anyway. A recent study by Duff
& Phelps brought up that problem, noting that rapidly
changing factors can make a company's ultimate fate hard to
prognosticate.
Still, the proliferation of these warnings, and the
reasons why companies fail -- obvious flaws such as lack of
profitability and too much debt -- should lead investors to
think twice about the beleaguered, supposedly "cheap" stocks
they're choosing for their portfolios. There could be more
spectacular flameouts on the way. Both the U.S economy and
the average consumer are in bad shape, and many struggling,
overindebted companies simply won't be able to survive.
Go for the gold, not for the goners
But plenty of stocks
dorepresent strong companies with worthy management
and little or no debt -- the kind of companies positioned to
survive macroeconomic hardship while beleaguered rivals get
taken out. Continued... |