Consumer stocks are now as risky as they've ever been.
Unemployment's historically high, consumers are spooked, and
subpar earnings abound, as companies pay the price for lost
competitive advantage or fiscal irresponsibility. But tough
times can offer investors
the best chance to buy stocks.
Even if stock prices are low, investors still need to be
careful. Many companies simply won't survive the recession.
Last week, I outlined
two big reasonsto love
The Buckle (NYSE: BKE). But even if you love
an investment, it's always Foolish to play devil's advocate,
probing for its potential weak spots. To keep you and your
portfolio ready for anything, I've highlighted two reasons to
loathe The Buckle.
Short interest!
I knew it would be tough to figure out
something to loathe about The Buckle; it's one of my
brightest stock ideas lately. Still, reader ilmostrorosso
pointed out in the comment box on last week's article that
The Buckle has extremely high short interest. Indeed, as of
last week, 37.5% of its float was short.
In fact, according to a
Wall Street Journalarticle, Buckle has one of the
highest short interest ratios among NYSE stocks.
Chipotle (NYSE: CMG) (NYSE: CMG-B) ranked
higher, with 41.7% of its float sold short; another retailer,
Talbots (NYSE: TLB), is up there, too, with
31.2% short.
There are plenty of retail stocks I'm far less
enthusiastic about, but oddly enough, their short interest
pales in comparison.
Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF), a poor
operator, had only 18.1% of its float short as of early
August. For another lackluster performer,
American Eagle Outfitters (NYSE: AEO), the
figure was only 5.8%!
That's a heck of a lot of negativity dogging The Buckle.
Clearly, some people think it's
heading for a fall, which should give you pause when
contemplating the stock.
The what, now?
Despite The Buckle's great business
performance, I've never actually seen one of its stores.
There's a reason for this: There just aren't that many stores
out there.
The Buckle had a total of 387 stores as of January; it has
operated under its current name since 1991. Obviously, this
company has been slow and conservative when it comes to
growth. That's arguably a good thing, but it certainly
implies that there are plenty of consumers who haven't ever
even heard of this retailer. (Or the stock, for that
matter!)
This is certainly no
Gap (NYSE: GPS), one of the all-time classic
examples of retail overexpansion. As of January, Gap had a
whopping 3,149 stores spanning its different concepts,
including Old Navy and Banana Republic. Continued... |