"I'm not crazy! You're the one that's crazy!"
-- Suicidal Tendencies,
Institutionalized
It's been a tough year since what I like to call
The Autumn of the Massive Collective Pants-Soiling. Have
we grown up, sobered up, or started building a healthier
economy? I think not. Welcome to the world of
institutionalized speculation.
Investors, policymakers, and the public in general seem
just as ready as ever to dismiss the importance of business
fundamentals, and no less voracious in their appetite for
risk. Is this further fallout from
the year of moral hazard?
Garbage stockstriumph on Wall Street. Government bailouts
reward businesses for failing. And as Uncle Sam doles out the
cash, a
confederacy of wussesstarts whining for its own share of
the largesse.
If we're not careful, we may soon forget that real
corporate performance and good economic sense are the way
things ought to be done. If so, the systemic mess we've
created could become business as usual.
The government as speculator
Companies like GM,
AIG (NYSE: AIG),
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM),
Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE),
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), and
Citigroup (NYSE: C) helped get us into our
current mess. They took on way too much risk, manically
participating in a speculative and debt-bloated bubble
environment. Still, the government has poured ample cash into
these
zombie losersto keep them alive, even though they
basically failed by the market's true standards.
Some observers have even praised the government for making
a
"profit" off its own "investments."True, Uncle Sam may
have done well with short-term paybacks from the stronger
recipients of its handouts, but the payments it made to
weaker players could accrue far greater losses. Some
economists and critics also point out that even with their
newly acquired taxpayer cash, many financial companies'
balance sheets are
stillfull of toxic assets, even a year after the
market crashed. In short, we can't be sure that the specter
of financial insolvency's truly behind us.
The government's already amassed $7.4 trillion in debt.
Over the next 10 years, that figure will swell to a total of
$9 trillion. These daunting numbers should prompt people to
confront the question of our nation's long-term fiscal
security. Instead, folks seem distracted by emotional
arguments over issues like health care, or the soothing
assurances of our economy's
supposed green shoots.
Follow the leader
Worse yet, individual investors still follow Uncle
Sam's lead by bidding up even the most damaged stocks,
gullibly convinced that last year's troubles are a distant
memory. Many of the names I mentioned earlier have recently
ranked among Wall Street's
most actively traded stocks.
It's bad enough when people pile into stocks that are
already saddled with debt and faced with major challenges.
For example,
Sirius XM (Nasdaq: SIRI) remains very
actively traded, despite its longtime difficulties in
actually turning a profit. So does
Crocs (Nasdaq: CROX), whose auditors warned
earlier this year that the shoemaker may not be able to
continue as a going concern.
But investors' appetite for risk-riddled companies doesn't
seem to stop there. Apparently, even long-failed Lehman
Brothers' pink sheet shares have been recently trading. So
have shares of bought-out Washington Mutual and doomed "old
GM." And that's just plain
nuts.
Caught up in bailout fever, some investors may be entirely
forgetting that healthy fundaments are the key to a sound
investment. Indeed, why should they worry about such things,
if someone else will always come along to patch up even the
most bloated, failure-prone beasts of the corporate world? I
can't decide whether moral hazard's truly dead, or whether
we're seeing its dire effects more clearly than ever.
We need to start saying no to goodies our nation can't
afford, even if they feel good or might "help" in the near
term. Cash for Clunkers, for example, definitely boosted new
car sales for a few months. But in the long run, it only
saddled a whole new crop of already cashed-strapped consumers
with the additional burden of car payments -- and subsidized
those dubious purchases at taxpayers' expense. Continued... |