Does everybody have the crazy? Has Wall Street been
smoking those much-discussed
green shoots? Even as investors argue and rend their hair
over relatively trivial issues, they've inhaled enough
mind-altering optimism to inflate the value of
garbage stocks. Alas, when we finally come down from this
collective bad trip, the big problems facing our economy will
still be waiting for us.
Missing the point on health care
The health-care debate, fueled more by rage
than reason, is just one example of investors' bizarre
behavior. Some progressive activists got steamed about
Whole Foods Market (Nasdaq: WFMI) CEO John
Mackey's
opinions on the issue. To retaliate, they called for a
boycott -- against one of the most progressive,
worker-friendly companies in the country. Yeah,
thatmakes sense.
The health-care hubbub is also drowning out important,
salient details -- like the rumblings that major health
insurers such as
UnitedHealth Group (NYSE: UNH),
Aetna , and
WellPoint have already been trying to make
nice with the government to ensure that any legislation
benefits them. While shareholders may rejoice, lopsided and
preferential treatment from Uncle Sam toward certain members
of the industry could unhealthily distort the market in their
favor.
The prevailing rationale argues that benevolent government
and greater regulation will save the day. (Never mind the
further interference with our economy.) But who will
reallybenefit from any impending changes? If
powerful corporations and special interests walk away
grinning, that's no improvement at all. Robust competition
among health-care insurers would be a much better outcome for
all of us.
If the health-care bill ultimately just showers insurers
with federal largesse, it'll be little better than the
government bailouts of powerful banking companies such as
AIG (NYSE: AIG),
Citigroup (NYSE: C), and
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC). Instead of
letting companies stand or fall on their own merits, we'll
have Uncle Sam once again coddling undeserving entities at
the possible expense of stronger ones.
Don't look there! Look over here!
Where will we even get the money to pay for health-care
reform, anyway? Last I checked, we were deep in debt as
is.
Yesterday's fiscal word from the White House may have left
most of Wall Street unfazed, but it nearly made me choke. The
government now predicts that the U.S. will run a $9 trillion
deficit over the next 10 years --$2 trillion more than an
earlier forecast this year.
The White House has also now admitted that the "less bad"
negative growth figures it's been using to project GDP for
the entire year (based on expected improvement from the
nauseating freefall reported in the year's first two
quarters) will be "more bad" than previously anticipated. By
now, it's easy to wonder whether these revised figures will
also prove wrong.
Earlier this year, the White House thought that in 2010,
GDP would increase by 3.2%; that's now been revised down to
2%. Meanwhile, the government expects public debt to consume
66.3% of GDP in 2010, the highest level since the 1940s. Continued... |