At this stage, the burden of proof must surely lie with
those bulls who claim that current market prices are entirely
justified by fundamentals. Nearly two weeks ago, I
highlighted
5 Signs Irrational Exuberance Is Back. I certainly didn't
expect the process to reverse on publication of the article,
so I remained vigilant for other signals that sentiment, not
rationality, is driving this market. It didn't take long for
me to collect five more (bulls -- please leave intelligent
counterarguments in the "Comments" section below the
article):
1.
Stocks are
stilloverpriced. In his latest note to
clients, Andrew Smithers -- who literally wrote the book on
market valuation -- reckons the U.S. market is now
approximately 40% overvalued. That number is based on a
comparison between the S&P 500's current cyclically
adjusted P/E multiple (the CAPE, which uses average
inflation-adjusted earnings in order to smooth out the
fluctuations of the business cycle) and its long-term
historical average.
The CAPE isn't a lone data point, either. Smithers writes
that Tobin's q ratio -- which compares the market value of
equities to their net worth at replacement cost -- points to
a similar degree of overvaluation in U.S. stocks.
2. The IPO market is back. The
third quarter was the strongest for U.S. IPOs since the first
quarter of 2008, with 20 offerings for a cumulative value of
$5.8 billion. That trend looks set to continue with 34
registrants seeking to raise $10.9 billion at the end of last
quarter against 28 aiming to raise $7.6 billion at the end of
the second quarter. Notably, technology is the best
represented sector -- with six registrants newly filed in
August and September.
Successful IPOs depend on positive sentiment. While we're
still far from the "glory days" of 2007 (thankfully), this
resurgence in the IPO market suggests there is a strong,
increasing appetite for risk assets.
3.
Asset managers are floating shares. Among the
new IPOs, some are more telling than others. English fund
manager Gartmore could register plans to float shares this
week. Asset management firms earn a percentage of their
assets under management (AUM). Rising markets swell existing
AUM and encourage new asset inflows; thus, investors reward
asset managers with rich valuations when markets are
ebullient, not depressed. Gartmore's owners, a shrewd LBO
group named Hellman & Friedman, know this; the timing of
the IPO -- which they expect to complete by year-end -- is
anything but casual.
A legendary LBO group, KKR, went public within the last
month by merging with an affiliate listed on Euronext
Amsterdam (part of
NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX)), with shares to
trade on the NYSE as early as spring 2010. Successful private
equity firms are masters of
timing. The June 2007 listing of KKR's fiercest rival,
the
Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX), rang the bell at
the top of the private equity boom: Blackstone shares have
lost 57% since their first day of trading.
4.
The towering inferno. Less than two weeks
ago, Henderson Land, a large Hong Kong property developer,
announced that it had sold a high-rise apartment for 439
million Hong Kong dollars (US$56.6 million). At a cost per
square foot of useable area equivalent to US$11,350,
Henderson affirms it is a record sale for Hong Kong and
believes it trumps all transactions anywhere in the
world.
This is simply the most blatant example of a Chinese
property bubble fueled by cheap money; Hong Kong home prices
have risen by 28% so far this year.
5.
John Meriwether is launching a hedge fund ...
again. Surely you remember Mr. Meriwether: In 1998,
he introduced us to the notion of "too
interconnectedto fail" when the Fed orchestrated a
bank-led rescue of his massively leveraged hedge fund,
Long-Term Capital Management. (The rescuers included
Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS),
Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS),
JPMorgan Chase (NYSE: JPM), Lehman Brothers
(now bankrupt), Salomon Smith Barney (part of Morgan Stanley
and
Citigroup (NYSE: C)), and Merrill Lynch (now
part of
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC).) Continued... |